Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Next!

It looks like Mr Cameron's position as leader of the Conservative party is becoming increasingly unstable, mainly over the £1.7 billion bill that the UK has been handed by the EU, with instructions to pay by December 1st.

The bill comes about as the EU needs more money to pay for overspent budgets.  A new calculation has been made, based on estimated use of drugs and prostitutes and also on the fact that the UK economy has seem some growth.  This calculation doesn't apply just to the UK though.  There are a few other countries, such as Holland, who have been presented with a similar bill. 

The first issue that this gives Mr Cameron is that, politically, he can't be seen to meekly pay up.  It would not play well with his party nor with the public, who are increasingly agreeing with the UKIP stance on such matters, ie that we should not be a member of the EU.  However, he has not been particularly successful in his negotiations with Europe, so getting the bill reduced will be a challenge.  Furthermore, if he refuses to pay it, according to Mr Barroso he will be taken to the European Court as a debt defaulter (and wouldn't that be ironic, given his stance on Scotland not taking on UK debt if it gained independence).

The second issue is that it appears that Mr Cameron was the last to know about the demand.  There he was, discussing weighty matters with the other EU leaders, but no-one thought to mention it to him.  Even members of his government knew about it a week before he did.  This doesn't paint a picture of a dynamic leader with his finger on the pulse.  Indeed, it makes him look increasingly isolated.

Aside from the matter of the EU bill, Mr Cameron's party are facing a by-election in Rochester, brought about by the defection of Mark Reckless from the Tories to UKIP.  Currently it looks like UKIP will win quite easily, which is not good news for Mr Cameron either, as his party are very worried by UKIP and its potential to split their traditional vote come May.

Increasingly it's looking like Mr Cameron has had his day.  There have already been rumours of backbench plots to have him removed, and even joggers scare him now.  The real worry for the rest of us is that it's likely that his replacement will be a much more hard-right politician, in order to fend off UKIP.
 
Interesting times ahead!

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