Monday, 20 October 2014

Indyref 2

Many people have been wondering how long it will be before we get another referendum on independence for Scotland.  I'm beginning to think that the answer is May 2015.

There was an article in the Scotsman on 18th October which states that the Orange Order have announced that they will be mobilising their membership to campaign to save the Union at all costs.  As I understand it, this means their members will be canvassing, leaflet dropping and campaigning for all of the pro-Union parties, including Labour, in Scotland in the run up to the General Election in 2015.  The implication of this would seem to be that they will back whichever of the pro-Union candidates in a given constituency that they think most likely to win the seat.  I'm not sure that all of the pro-Union parties are likely to welcome this move.  It's a bit of a double-edged sword, like having an aged relative at your wedding, the one who paid a big chunk of the reception costs but who insists on making offensive remarks about everyone and then saying 'What? I'm just being honest'.

Meantime, in the Sunday Herald, each of the candidates for the SNP's Depute Leader sets out their case for being elected, and two of them make reference to the wider Yes movement and the possibility of fighting the next General Election on a joint platform.  This would be for more powers, and making sure that the 'Vow' is implemented with the best possible outcome for Scotland.  Again, it would seem that all three parties would campaign for the Yes candidate most likely to win a given constituency.  The appetite for change and the grassroots movement are all still there, so it will be a case of whether a joint platform is possible without in-fighting.  We shall see.

So, if the above situation comes to pass, we pretty much have a rerun on our hands.  A lot may happen between now and May, especially given the timetable that the Smith Commission is supposed to be working to, but it will be interesting to see how this one turns out, given that a percentage of No voters are now regretting their choice in September. 

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